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Higher Oil Receipts Lift Nigeria’s External Reserves Above $52bn as Inflation Eases

The Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Dr. Olayemi Cardoso, has announced that Nigeria’s gross external reserves have risen to 52.52 billion dollars, reflecting continued improvements in the country’s external position.

Dr. Cardoso disclosed this on Tuesday in Abuja while presenting the communiqué issued at the end of the 306th meeting of the apex bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC).

The News Agency of Nigeria (NAN) reports that the MPC had earlier resolved to retain the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) at 26.5 per cent.

The committee also retained the Standing Facilities Corridor around the MPR at +50/-450 basis points, the Cash Reserve Requirement (CRR) for Deposit Money Banks at 45.00 per cent, Merchant Banks at 16.00 per cent, and non-TSA public sector deposits at 75.00 per cent.

According to Dr. Cardoso, the country’s gross external reserves increased to 52.52 billion dollars as of July 17, up from 50.47 billion dollars at the end of May.

He attributed the increase largely to receipts from crude oil-related taxes and third-party inflows.

“This is sufficient to finance approximately 11 months of imports of goods and services, surpassing the international benchmark of three months’ import cover,” he said.

The CBN governor said headline inflation, measured year-on-year, eased marginally to 15.91 per cent in June from 15.93 per cent in May, ending three consecutive months of rising inflation.

According to him, the moderation resulted from a decline in the non-food component, which offset an increase in food inflation.

“Food inflation rose to 17.52 per cent in June from 16.96 per cent in May, reflecting persistent supply constraints.

“However, core inflation moderated to 15.92 per cent in June from 16.82 per cent in May, largely on the back of exchange rate stability.

“Similarly, the 12-month average inflation rate declined to 17.63 per cent in June from 18.36 per cent in May.”

He described the development as the sixth consecutive month of moderation, reflecting a slower pace of price increases over the medium term.

On a month-on-month basis, headline inflation also declined to 1.66 per cent in June from 1.75 per cent in May, driven by slower growth in core inflation.

Dr. Cardoso further disclosed that Nigeria’s real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded by 3.89 per cent in the first quarter of 2026, compared with 4.07 per cent in the preceding quarter.

He attributed the performance largely to the resilience of the non-oil sector, which grew by 3.94 per cent, supported by improved performance in telecommunications, financial services, trade, transportation, and other service subsectors.

According to him, growth in the oil sector slowed to 2.57 per cent in the first quarter of 2026 from 6.79 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2025, owing to maintenance activities at oil facilities and installations.

He, however, noted that recent data pointed to improving economic activity, with the composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rising to 50.1 points in June from 49.6 points in May.

Dr. Cardoso expressed optimism that economic growth would remain resilient throughout 2026, supported by improved crude oil production, expansion in manufacturing activity as reflected in the PMI, and the positive effects of recent policy reforms.

He also projected that inflation would continue to moderate over the medium term, supported by sustained stability in the foreign exchange market, the delayed effects of previous monetary tightening, and improved food supply as the harvest season approaches.

However, he warned that the major downside risk to the outlook remains the prolonged escalation of the conflict in the Middle East.

“In the light of these considerations, the MPC reaffirmed its commitment to preserving price and financial system stability.

“The committee remains prepared to take appropriate policy measures, guided by evolving macroeconomic conditions,” he said.

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