Presidential campaigning kicks off in Nigeria on Wednesday, five months before the 2027 election, with the race expected to be dominated by economic hardship, insecurity, and President Bola Tinubu’s far-reaching economic reforms.

Africa’s most populous country continues to grapple with years of economic turmoil and violence by armed groups, while a divided opposition could work in Tinubu’s favour as he seeks a second term.

“The economy is the biggest issue. That’s the one thing that cuts across different parts of the country, and it continues to affect security and development concerns,” said Afolabi Adekaiyaoja, author of the Nigerian politics newsletter, The Bellwether.

Elected in 2023, Tinubu has used his first term to push through ambitious economic reforms, including the removal of a costly fuel subsidy that had for years indirectly suppressed prices across the economy.

Although praised by economists and investors, the reforms have contributed to a cost-of-living crisis in which the naira lost significant value and inflation rose to 34 per cent. Headline inflation, however, fell to 15.4 per cent in July.

A slide into poverty that predates Tinubu’s administration has continued to affect millions, with more than 60 per cent of Nigerians now living below the poverty line, according to the World Bank, up from 40 per cent in 2019.

Violence has also increased since 2024, according to Ladd Serwat, senior Africa analyst at conflict monitor ACLED. He attributed the rise to “the spread and intensification of armed banditry across northern and central Nigeria” and increased conflict in Borno State, the heart of the jihadist insurgency.

Meanwhile, Adekaiyaoja said “the opposition has been too mired in internal and legal issues to really articulate a difference” between its policies and those of Tinubu.

“The most important issues for me are the economy and cost of living,” said civil servant Afolayan Abdullahi, 42, who said he intended to vote for Tinubu.

Tinubu is regarded as one of Nigeria’s shrewdest politicians, while his All Progressives Congress controls the National Assembly and 31 of the country’s 36 governorships.

The January 16 election will, in part, be a rematch of the 2023 presidential contest, with Tinubu again facing former South-East governor Peter Obi, former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar, and others.

Tinubu won the 2023 election with 36.6 per cent of the vote. Abubakar secured 29 per cent, while Obi polled 25 per cent.

Rabiu Kwankwaso, who garnered about six per cent in the last election, has teamed up with Obi as his running mate.

“Nigeria is not safe — terrorists, kidnappers, bandits everywhere,” said Becky Alegbe, a street vendor in Abuja.

The 28-year-old is registered to vote in her home village in Edo State, but said she would not risk travelling there to vote.

“For me to take the risk to travel… I will not take that,” she said, citing quintupled transport costs and concerns about vote-buying that have tainted previous elections.

Turnout was just 27 per cent in 2023.